Dallas Stars Are Under Pressure With Harley's Next Contract

The Dallas Stars barely made it through this offseason without a complete overhaul even though they did lose a few players like Mikael Granlund, Mason Marchment, and Cody Ceci. With Mikko Rantanen, Wyatt Johnston, and Jake Oettinger's contracts starting, there was a lot less room to work with while the team was able to bring back Matt Duchene, Jamie Benn, Mavrik Bourque, and more at below market value.

The Stars aren't going to continue to get so lucky as Thomas Harley and Jason Robertson require new deals after the season and there is no money coming off the books. The choices will come down to trading Robertson or buying out the final year of Tyler Seguin's contract of $9.5 million AAV, and there still might not be much money to go around.

There is going to be some trouble with Thomas Harley's next contract and it might result in an offer sheet as there is no Gavin McKenna in the 2027 draft to hold onto a first-round pick for. Jeff Marek said, " Thomas Harley is in for a massive raise, and I think the Dallas Stars have tried to...sort of use Miro Heiskanen as that ceiling."

There is a bit of a problem with using Heiskanen's deal as a ceiling though. Heiskanen never got a bridge deal. He is going into the fifth year of his eight-year deal at $8.45 million AAV. He plays just over 25 minutes per game, but didn't have a great season in 2025-26. Harley was much more impressive. Harley is just 24 years old and just scored 16 goals and 50 points while being a +32. That was just his second full season in the NHL and he finished seventh in Norris Trophy voting. Those numbers scream number one defenseman, so he should be paid like one.

The cap wasn't going up when the Stars signed Heiskanen, and he was arguably underpaid compared to some of his counterparts. That might also have something to do with the state the Stars are in with lower tax on the money the players bring home. The difference last season between Heiskanen and Harley was Heiskanen averaged around 1:30 more ice time per game and over one minute more of ice time on the power play, while playing close to one fewer minutes per game on the penalty kill. Harley outperformed him despite that.

The Stars will of course start the negotiation under Heiskanen's number as they likely believe he is still the clear number one, but I think that Harley, especially if he performs for a third straight season, will get something closer to $9 million AAV or even a bit higher. He has already earned it more than other young players getting big paydays and it is up to the Stars to figure out the money situation since he's worth the raise.