Reason Behind Luke Evangelista Standoff Revealed

Luke Evangelista, Nashville Predators forward juggles puck on his stick during warmup

Nashville Predators GM Barry Trotz calls young Luke Evangelista "the future of the Predators", and was reported this week to say he hasn't even given a thought to trading him. And yet, here we are, camp is underway, and no deal is done yet with the restricted free agent.

Evangelista was the Preds' second-round pick in the 2020 NHL Draft (42nd overall) and had a very nice rookie season in 2023-24. He posted 16 goals and 39 points in 80 games in just 13:57 of ice time per night. He finished 9th in the Calder Trophy balloting.

He took a step back last season, as his production dropped off to 10 goals and 22 assists for 32 points in 68 games, though he did finish strong, with 16 points in his last 23 games.

According to insider Elliotte Friedman on the 32 Thoughts podcast, there's one sticking point that's led to the standoff in negotiations on a new contract.

I had a couple of people point out to me that there is a contract, a comparable, that is causing issues here. And that contract is Jack Quinn of the Buffalo Sabres. Quinn last year signed a two-year deal with an AAV of $3.375, and I heard that that is the contract that is causing an issue, in the sense that I believe that that is the comparable that Evangelista's representatives are looking at. And I've heard the Predators are not there. So, that's led to the stalemate.

Contract comp used by Evangelista camp leads to standoff with Predators

Quinn was the No. 8 overall pick by the Sabres in that same 2020 Draft, so obviously a higher pedigree, though his best season to date, last year, is pretty much equal to Evangelista's best season (Quinn had 15 goals and 39 points, almost identical, but in one extra minute of ice time per game). The difference, other than pedigree, is that Quinn has two seasons with numbers in that range, as he also posted 14 goals and 37 points in 75 games in his rookie season in 2022-23.

On some accounts, based on the stats, one can understand why the Evangelista camp is using Quinn and his $3.375M as a comp.

On the other hand, AFP Analytics had projected Evangelista as being in line for a two-year x $2.5 million AAV deal, so it's reasonable to believe that the Predators are thinking about something closer to that range, while also falling back on the fact that he was not a top 10 overall prospect like Quinn.

It'll be interesting to see where this one falls, but certainly Trotz has absolutely no doubts that he'll have Evangelista as a key part of his team going forward. It's just a matter of when he can get something done and get him into camp. Missing too much training camp for a 23-year-old is never a good way to go into a season.