Teams Concerned About Signing Pending Free Agent Darren Raddysh

Thursday, April 23, 2026 ,
Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Darren Raddysh reacts during 2026 game.

Darren Raddysh had one of the most remarkable individual seasons of any defenseman in the NHL this year.

The Tampa Bay Lightning blueliner posted 22 goals and 48 assists for 70 points in 73 games, led the Lightning in ice time at an average of 22 minutes and 42 seconds per night, and did it all as a pending unrestricted free agent in what turned out to be the most perfectly timed breakout of his career.

He is undrafted, has been earning NHL money for only a few seasons, and has never carried a cap hit over $1 million.

Come July 1, he will likely be one of the most coveted players on the open market, particularly given how thin the right-shot defenseman pool is this summer.

But Terry Koshan of the Toronto Sun, who identified Raddysh as the top pending UFA the Toronto Maple Leafs might consider pursuing, put the central concern plainly.

The team that signs him will hope he was not a one-hit wonder.

The Numbers That Give You Pause

The concern is not that Raddysh had a bad season.

It is that the season he had was so far beyond anything in his previous track record that projecting it forward requires a meaningful leap of faith.

Before this year, his career high in points was 37, posted across 73 games last season. He went from six goals to 22 this year.

His shooting percentage as a defenseman exceeded ten percent, more than double what he put up in either of his two previous full NHL seasons.

That kind of number is difficult to sustain for anyone, let alone a player turning 31 in February who is in only his third full NHL campaign.

This was also just Raddysh's third full season at the NHL level, and he never put up comparable numbers in the AHL either. The trajectory is unusual, the sample is quite small, and the age curve is not working in his favor going forward.

All of that makes the bidding war that appears to be coming a fairly complicated situation for any team writing him a check.

What the Market Looks Like

AFP Analytics projects Raddysh to land a four-year deal at around $5.3 million per season, though most analysts believe that figure is light given the scarcity of right-shot defensemen available.

A range of $6 to $7 million annually feels more realistic, and some projections have gone higher depending on how aggressive the bidding gets.

Twenty-three teams are projected to have more than $15 million in cap space this summer, and nine have more than $30 million available.

That is a lot of teams with money to spend chasing a limited supply of quality blue line options.

Koshan noted that the Maple Leafs, who are projected to carry roughly $22.2 million in cap space heading into 2026-27, have the room to get involved and have been linked to Raddysh by Elliotte Friedman as a genuine suitor.

The Toronto native playing in his hometown with a right-handed shot that would look excellent on the Leafs' power play is a compelling narrative on its own.

But Koshan was careful to note that the new Toronto GM, whoever that turns out to be, needs to be wary of getting caught up in a bidding war over a player who is not exactly a proven commodity.

A two or three year deal in the $5 million range makes sense from Toronto's perspective.

Whether Raddysh settles for that after the season he just had is a completely different question.

The Risk Is Real But So Is the Player

It is worth noting that Raddysh's breakout was not built entirely on luck.

The Lightning largely controlled play with him on the ice, and he was an effective two-way presence all season long.

His goal share above 80 percent and a PDO of 101.6 reflect some puck luck, but the underlying numbers suggest a player who really elevated his game rather than someone who simply rode good fortune for eight months.

Tampa Bay has been hesitant to extend him, which may say more about their own cap situation and caution around small sample sizes than it does about how they feel about his talent.

The risk for any team, including the Leafs, is that good players have great seasons in contract years and then never quite live up to the deal that follows.

It happens often enough in the NHL that front offices with salary cap constraints cannot afford to ignore it. Raddysh has earned the right to find out exactly what he is worth on the open market.

The team on the other side of that negotiation will have to decide how much they trust that this season was the real Darren Raddysh and not the exception.

Photo Credit: Keito Newman-Imagn Images

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