Adam Fantilli's Extension Close — AAV Projected By Blue Jackets Analyst

Following the blockbuster Leo Carlsson offer sheet signing and eventual matching by the Anaheim Ducks, many thought that his $18 million AAV might become the new norm for any upcoming contracts for young NHL stars. That, however, does not seem to be the case. 

Connor Bedard, who was selected at No. 1 to Carlsson's No. 2 in the 2023 Draft, signed with the Chicago Blackhawks for a fair bit less. Granted, it's still a pretty healthy number, at a $15 million AAV on a five-year deal.

According to Jason Gregor on his latest podcast, Carlsson's situation was completely unique, and not the new standard-bearer.

"I think Bedard's kind of set the new standard because you can't really compare anything to offer sheets," Gregor said.

With that in mind, Aaron Portzline of The Athletic, in speaking with Gregor, is projecting a much more sane AAV for another young star center from the '23 Draft Class, the third pick, Adam Fantilli of the Columbus Blue Jackets.  

I would bet $13M, $13.5M, depending upon the term. I think it's going to be a five-year deal. 

You're buying up a couple years of UFA in there. That would be my guess. If I were to guess today, I'd say 5 by $13M or 5 by $13.5.

Just to be clear, if it is a five-year deal, it's actually one year of UFA status that would be bought up. The same situation as the Bedard and Carlsson contracts.  

Fantilli extension getting close — but here's why it's taken so long

Then Portzline goes on to give a promising update on the timeline to get a Fantilli extension done. 

And I think it's close to getting done, by the way. He's in Italy right now... he's probably staring across the Amalfi Coast waiting for his deal to settle. I think it's early next week is when the real push comes. There's nothing else (to be done), the (arbitration) guys are out of the way (and all signed) now. 

As for how GMs like Pat Verbeek (Anaheim), Kyle Davidson (Chicago) and Don Waddell (Columbus) didn't get these guys signed earlier to avoid this massive explosion in salaries, Portzline says you can't blame them. The players were always going to wait. 

"I think one thing we're learning... is these high-end guys, they're not signing before July 1, like, they're using that leverage. And they should. Carlsson was right—you couldn't get them to the (negotiating) table. 

The Blue Jackets wanted to meet with (Fantilli's) agents at the scouting combine and get working on this and they were told, 'We're not ready to talk yet,' right?"

He also figures that Waddell should be thanking Connor Bedard for bringing just a bit of sanity back to the conversation. 

"By Bedard taking $15M, I think now you can safely or reasonably say that Fantilli should be a $13.5 guy."