NHL Rumors: How The Salary Cap Increase Affects Mitch Marner's Future With Toronto
With the cap set to increase from $88 million this season to $95.5 million in 2025-26, then $104 million and $113.5 million in the following years, teams will have more financial flexibility.
Marner, who becomes an unrestricted free agent next summer, will command a significant raise from his current $10.9 million AAV. His last extension in 2019 accounted for 13.37% of the cap, which would now translate to $12.78 million.
If he pushes for a percentage closer to Auston Matthews’ 15.07%, his next contract could exceed $14 million. “It feels a lock that he could command more than $13 million on the open market given how many teams will be swimming in cap space,” The Athletic’s James Mirtle wrote.
Is there a chance Marner will miss tomorrow's game in Calgary?
— Mark Masters (@markhmasters) February 3, 2025
Craig Berube: "No, not necessarily ... We'll see how they (Mitch & Ekman-Larsson) are tomorrow"@TSN_Sports
The challenge for Toronto is securing Marner’s contract along with other key extensions.
John Tavares’ $11 million AAV is set to expire alongside Marner’s, and while he is expected to take a pay cut, it may not drop significantly—potentially settling around $8 million.
Meanwhile, restricted free agent Matthew Knies is due for a raise, and the Leafs must be wary of the threat of an offer sheet.
If Marner, Tavares, and Knies all sign new deals, much of Toronto’s projected $31 million in cap space could disappear quickly, limiting their ability to attack other roster needs, particularly on defense and at center.
Mitch Marner
— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) February 2, 2025
Fastest member of the Maple Leafs to 70 points in a season (52 GP) since Doug Gilmour & Dave Andreychuk in 1993-94 pic.twitter.com/kOB49mfqUX
A rising cap generally benefits Toronto, giving them the ability to retain core players while outspending smaller-market teams.
However, it also inflates player salaries across the league, making free agency more competitive. If Marner’s next deal surpasses $13 million annually, the Leafs will need to decide whether to meet his demands or reallocate cap space elsewhere.
“The Leafs’ cap situation is better than it’s been in years, but it can vanish fast,” Mirtle warned.
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