NHL Rumors: Projected Contract Revealed for Stars' Jason Robertson

Wednesday, December 03, 2025
Dallas Stars forward Jason Robertson skates during 2025 game.

Jason Robertson is doing exactly what every general manager secretly fears in a contract year. 

The Dallas Stars sniper is torching the league again, piling up 35 points in 26 games and coming off a month where he led the NHL in goals, points and shots. He has already produced a 100 point season earlier in his career, and his current heater only strengthens the case that the his next contract will need to live in true superstar territory. 

Dallas avoided trading him when other teams asked how they could ever afford his next deal. Now they are about to find out.

Jason Robertson contract range: chasing Mikko Rantanen money

Insiders are already circling a number. David Pagnotta has said bluntly that you are getting into eight figure territory with Robertson and that Dallas should expect something in the 11 to 12 million dollar range annually, even with the tax advantages in Texas. 

That framework lines up neatly with what the Stars just did for Mikko Rantanen, who landed a 12 million dollar AAV as a franchise winger. On Daily Faceoff LIVE, Carter Hutton suggested Robertson will probably land right around that Rantanen number, because this is not a player you bridge or slow play. He is an RFA after this season, a UFA after the next one, and every monster month he puts up now only increases the risk of waiting.

Last month alone, Robertson scored 13 goals and 26 points, led the league in shots, and drove offense at a ridiculous 71 goal and 71 assist pace over a 15 game stretch. 

That's not empty calorie scoring either. He is leading a legitimate Cup contender in goals and points and has already proven he can be the primary driver on a top line. When you combine that resume with his age and arbitration leverage, it's very hard to make a case for anything below the low end of that 11 to 12 million band on a max term.

How the salary cap and Stars’ structure shape the deal

The salary cap is projected to jump to roughly 104 million dollars next season and potentially into the 113 to 115 million range the year after, which gives Dallas more room to absorb another massive number on the books. 

Existing contracts help the math too. Tyler Seguin’s deal is entering its final stretch and will eventually fall off, while the club has already locked in core pieces like Rantanen, Wyatt Johnston, Thomas Harley and Esa Lindell at set rates. That is exactly why they were so adamant about keeping Robertson through all the speculation, including when teams like the Carolina Hurricanes were poking around last year.

The real urgency is term. This is the last cycle where Dallas can still sign Robertson to an eight year extension before September 2026, and everyone around the league can see how dangerous it would be to let him slide into a shorter deal. 

If the Stars try to play it cute with a two or three year pact, they risk walking him straight toward free agency just as the cap explodes, which could turn an 11 to 12 million dollar AAV into something even scarier. 

The most realistic outcome remains an eight year extension that mirrors or slightly beats Rantanen’s number, something in that 11.5 to 12 million range that cements Robertson as one of the highest paid wingers in the NHL and locks in the Stars’ offensive engine for the rest of his prime.

Photo Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

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