Islanders' Matthew Schaefer Facing A Record-Breaking Payday
Frank Seravalli's projection, a five-year, $95.5 million contract carrying a $19.1 million average annual value, might be enough to get Schaefer under contract when he becomes extension-eligible next summer.
The reasoning traces to the rising salary cap. The league's cap ceiling is set to jump to $113.5 million in 2027-28, which would push the maximum allowable contract value to $22.7 million annually, giving teams the room to pay a franchise player far more than was possible even a year ago.
The Domino That Started It
The number reset when the San Jose Sharks signed forward Macklin Celebrini to a five-year, $94 million extension worth $18.8 million annually, the highest average annual value in NHL history.
That deal immediately shifted attention to Long Island.
Schaefer’s next contract will start with a 2. 💰
— Hockey Patrol (@HockeyPatrol) July 29, 2026
Macklin Celebrini just landed $18.8 million per season, while Leo Carlsson secured $18 million annually.
If Matthew Schaefer continues on his current trajectory, the Islanders may eventually be looking at the NHL’s first $20… pic.twitter.com/C6bxvU2iwa
NHL insider Jeff Marek raised the question everyone around the league was already asking.
"And next July, Matthew Schaefer's number will be…?" Marek said.
Why He's The Next Name
Schaefer, the first overall pick in the 2025 draft, just turned in one of the greatest rookie seasons by a defenseman in NHL history, winning the Calder Trophy and tying the record for most goals by a rookie blueliner.
He's still two years away from unrestricted free agency and isn't eligible to sign an extension until July 1, 2027, but that hasn't stopped agents and insiders from already pricing him against the league's new class of superstar contracts.
One NHL agent not affiliated with Schaefer laid out a blunt strategy for how his camp should approach it.
"He might take a little bit of a discount."
— The Sheet with Jeff Marek (@thesheethockey) August 4, 2026
Keith Kavanaugh discusses what Matthew Schaefer's next contract could look like. 👀 pic.twitter.com/nZhBc9C42k
"If he repeats this in his second year and if I was Schaefer, I would not look to extend," the agent said. "I would look to play my contract out to show I am who I am. I would do this for three consecutive years, and then push for whatever the market is at that point. It could be between $16 to $18 million. I would go short term because I would want to stay in the market."
That comp was made before Celebrini's deal came in, meaning the real number Schaefer's camp is now eyeing could run even higher.
Another projection goes a step further, suggesting evaluators believe the New York Islanders could eventually be negotiating with the league's first $20 million-per-year defenseman.
Where Schaefer Stands On It
For his part, Schaefer has stayed almost entirely removed from the conversation.
"I'll let my agent think about that," Schaefer told NHL.com's Dave McCarthy. "I don't need to think about that, I'm still a kid, I'm still a year away from any of that. I love Long Island. We have something so special going on there. I don't care about the money. I just want to play the game of hockey and that's what I love."
He echoed the same sentiment at a recent charity golf event, again deflecting the financial questions back to his representation.
"I don't care about the money," Schaefer said. "I just want to play the game of hockey."
With the cap continuing to climb and comparable young stars resetting the market every few weeks, the $19 million figure being floated today may end up looking conservative by the time Schaefer is actually eligible to sign.
