Latest Stunning Intel On Evan Bouchard's RFA Status with Oilers

With so much attention on the Buffalo Sabres' JJ Peterka and Bowen Byram, Noah Dobson of the Islanders and even Matthew Knies with the Toronto Maple Leafs, it's easy to forget that the undoubted king of the restricted free agent class is Evan Bouchard of the Edmonton Oilers.

And a stunning update from hockey insider Brian Lawton comes to us on Bob Stauffer's Oilers Now this morning (h/t David Staples in the Edmonton Journal): Lawton suggests that a "predatory offer sheet" is coming for Bouchard if Edmonton doesn't get his contract signed, sealed and delivered before July 1.

I do think I could see it (offer sheet) happening if he’s not signed and it drags on. If it were me, I would want to sign that player now. That one will be a lot of fireworks. In my opinion, it’d be best to clean that up as quick as possible.

Of course, the Oilers were victimized last summer when the St. Louis Blues swooped in in August and scooped up Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway on offer sheets. They do not want a repeat of that this summer, and simply can't let it linger.

As for how a contract might look for Bouchard—if the Oilers can get it done—insider Pierre LeBrun in The Athletic says they're still looking for the "sweet spot."

For my money, it’s one of the most interesting offseason negotiations in the league. The Edmonton Oilers are tight against the cap but hope to sign Bouchard before next week, when other teams can reach out to the restricted free agent. I think all options are on the table as far as different types of contracts, but I believe what may end up making the most sense is something around the four-year range.

Further to that, he notes that Bouchard is represented by Wasserman Hockey, the same agency that negotiated a four-year extension for Auston Matthews with the Leafs when he was 26.

Why will Evan Bouchard sign a shorter-term contract?

By signing a four-year deal, it would allow the 25-year-old offensive defenseman to make another foray into free agency at the age of 29, still a prime age for landing a long-term, hefty contract. And at that point, "the salary cap will have skyrocketed," observes LeBrun.

AFP Analytics has projected Bouchard's contract as coming in at eight years and $10.9 million AAV. But that's at full term. Could a four-year deal keep that number down to a more reasonable cap hit for the Oilers?

Bouchard, a workhorse who has only missed a total of two games in his four full NHL seasons, finished this past year with 67 points and a plus/minus rating of +14. In 347 career games, he has 238 points with a +57 rating. He led the Stanley Cup Playoffs in 2024 with a +14 rating.