One Maple Leafs Analyst Says It's Not 'A Foregone Conclusion' That Marner is Gone

Leafs analyst says he's 'not convinced' that Marner is definitely leaving Toronto.

All of the buzz around Leafs Nation is that Mitch Marner has played his final game as a Toronto Maple Leaf, and will be leaving his hometown via unrestricted free agency on July 1. Even his exit interview this week had more than a hint of "past tense" in it ("I've always loved my time here. Loved being here.").

But as discovered by Cole Shelton of heavy.com, there's at least one Maple Leafs analyst in Toronto who "isn't convinced" that Marner is out the door. Bryan Hayes of TSN's Overdrive says we should all hold our horses for the time being.

There is this conclusion that has taken off that he is gone. That may be the case, it may be the case that he has made up his mind that he has to leave. Maybe there is a scenario where the Leafs look at it and say we need to change, too. But, I’m not as convinced as I was a day ago that it’s a foregone conclusion he’s out of there.

Analyst says Leafs can't 'stomach' letting Mitch Marner go

The reason that Hayes is still skeptical, is, generally, the old axiom, 'the best predictor of future behavior, is past behavior.'

What makes you think the Leafs have the stomach all of a sudden to say we can live without this guy?… I’ll believe it when I see it, it’s not my opinion of what should happen. What I am saying is, the Leafs, year after year, have proven they don’t have the stomach to do it. Believe it when you see it.

What you can believe, is the facts. While Marner is without a doubt one of the most talented players in hockey, a playmaker with few rivals, a 200-foot player who kills penalties as well as creates offense with the best of them. He cracked the 100-point mark this season. But then there's this playoff thing that happens every year that Leaf fans are acutely aware of...

Leafs core in Game 5-6-7 (2019-2025)

Nylander 20GP - 8G - 8A
MATTHEWS 18GP - 8G - 4A
TAVARES 17GP 5G - 5A
MARNER 20GP - 0G - 7A
— Drew Livingstone (@ProducerDrew_) May 19, 2025

In the past seven postseasons, in Games 5, 6, and 7 of a playoff series, Marner has zero goals and seven points in 20 games. The other Toronto UFA, John Tavares, hasn't been a heckuva lot better, with 10 points in 17 games, though he did score the big Game 7 overtime winner in 2023 that led the Leafs to their first series victory in 19 years.

As for Marner, any playoff heroics in his future very well might come in another uniform.

Maybe.