Betting Odds For Conn Smythe Trophy Reveal Surprising Numbers

Saturday, May 16, 2026 , ,

Vegas Golden Knights forward Mitch Marner

If you were to handicap the Conn Smythe Trophy race before these Stanley Cup Playoffs began, it's pretty certain that two of the top three betting favorites right now would not have been on your board. 

According to Covers.com and Bet 99, the betting odds for the playoff MVP look like this heading into Saturday night's crucial Game 6 in Montreal between the Canadiens and Buffalo Sabres:

  1. Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche  +195
  2. Frederik Andersen, Carolina Hurricanes    +450
  3. Mitch Marner, Vegas Golden Knights        +1000

Nathan MacKinnon. Sure, everyone had him on their list, and in their playoff pools. But Frederik Andersen? Mitch Marner?

Despite the heroics thus far of Andersen and Marner, MacKinnon retains the top spot in the odds simply because the Avalanche are the overwhelming favorites to go to the Cup Finals, and, well, MacKinnon is MacKinnon. He has 138 points in 104 career playoff games. He's coming off his fourth straight regular season of well over 100 points, and the Avalanche are the favorites to win it all. 

But the Hurricanes have 59% odds of reaching the Finals, per Moneypuck, and Andersen has been as red-hot as anyone in this postseason, with an 8-0 record, a 1.12 goals against average and a .950 save percentage. This is all fairly shocking after the 36-year-old oft-injured goalie posted a career-low .874 Sv% this season and a career-worst 3.05 GAA. But he's coming up large (and healthy) when it's counted. 

As for Marner, everyone knows the narrative out of Toronto by now. As skilled a player as he is, he never came up big in the playoffs. So say the Toronto media and fans. Only 63 points in 70 career postseason games, and the numbers look far worse in the critical Games 5, 6, & 7 of series. 

But he has created every Leafs fan's nightmare this season, suddenly becoming Mr. Postseason. With clutch performance after clutch performance, he leads the entire Stanley Cup Playoffs with 18 points, three better than his closest pursuer. 

And then there was the Goal of the Year in Game 6 to set them up for a series victory over Anaheim. 

On to the Conference Finals, and we'll see which of these three retain, or improve, their odds moving forward. 

Photo: © Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images 

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